Pulitzer Prize Predictions for Fiction 2024

Posted on by Supposedly Fun

It is a truth universally acknowledged that I am obsessed with the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. As much as I might enjoy following other book awards, the Pulitzer is the one that has my heart. I’m even working on a project where I am reading every book that has won a Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. Last year, I covered Interpreter of Maladies, the book I credit with starting my obsession with the prize.

Every year, I also embark on a fool’s errand: trying to predict what will win the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. With the Pulitzer, you’re making a stab in the dark. It’s the only major literary prize with no longlist and no list of finalists to go off of. You don’t even know who the jury is because the Pulitzer Board prefers them to remain anonymous until the prize is announced (in order to prevent campaigning). You only get one shot to get it right and you don’t get any hints as to which direction the prize might go this year. But that also makes it fun… if a little maddening.

There aren’t even any consistent indicators for what might be on its way to a win. Sometimes, the ALA Notable Titles are helpful, but more often, they aren’t. Sometimes, the PEN/Faulkner longlist gives you a good idea, but most of the time, it doesn’t (and the winner of the PEN/Faulkner almost never lines up with the Pulitzer). The most consistent indicator is that the Pulitzer winner usually has a starred review from Kirkus, Publishers Weekly, or both. But a lot of books can claim that status, so you still have a lot of options.

So far, I’ve always managed to at least mention the winner in my predictions. Sometimes, it gets mentioned just to say that it probably won’t win, like when I discussed The Nickel Boys in my 2020 prediction. Last year, I had my most successful prediction year ever because I believed that the top two contenders were Trust and Demon Copperhead, and I had a difficult time choosing between them. It never occurred to me that both would win, but I still give myself credit for recognizing that they were in such a dead heat. The downside, of course, is that now I feel a lot of pressure to repeat that success.

Sooner or later, there will be a year with a surprise that I didn’t see coming, but that’s part of the fun for me… even though I know when it happens, I will be very frustrated.

HOW IT WORKS

Before we begin, let’s quickly cover how the Pulitzer Prizes work. The process is very secretive and insular, so we don’t even really know what the current process for selection is, but the basic format is the same. A jury is named for each category to go through the submissions. We don’t get to know who the jury is until the prize is announced–again, this is to prevent authors or publishers from campaigning, as far as I can tell. The jury narrows it down to finalists–usually three. They do not get to pick a winner. Historically, the jury was allowed to make a recommendation to the Board, listing why they selected the finalists and which title they thought should win. Again, the process is murky, but as recently as 2012 it did not appear that the jury was allowed to make a recommendation to the Board anymore. If the Board is unsatisfied with the finalists they have been presented with, there are indications that they can ask for an additional finalist to consider. Or, they could just opt not to award any prize that year–although this is unlikely to happen again (or at least any time soon) after the controversy that came in 2012 when the Board failed to select a winner).

This selection process isn’t entirely unlike the way it works for the Booker or the Women’s Prize, but in those cases, the jury has significantly more control over the outcome. For the Pulitzer, the Board ultimately has the final say.

The Pulitzer also has a mandate that needs to be taken into consideration, although how it is applied can be very murky: “For distinguished fiction published in book form during the year by an American author, preferably dealing with American life.” Different juries, and different Boards, have had very different interpretations for how much (or how little) each part of that mandate needs to be taken into account. I could spend a lot of time listing instances where they bent the rule about publication (Train Dreams in 2012), the part about dealing with American life (The Orphan Master’s Son in 2013), and that the prize should go to an American (Carol Shields had immigrated to Canada when she won for The Stone Diaries, which was a finalist for the Booker Prize the same year–in an era when Americans weren’t supposed to be eligible for the Booker), but I’ll leave it at those three examples.

There is a change on the horizon, but it does not come into effect this year. Beginning with eligible titles for next year’s prize, the citizenship requirement has been expanded to include longtime and permanent residents of the United States.

Anyway, let’s get to the candidates. I’ve divided them into a couple of categories to make it a little easier to discuss them. At the end, I’ll make my prediction and talk about what I would like to see win.

And on May 6, we’ll find out if I’m right.

INELIGIBLE

Before anyone asks, here is a list of notable books from 2023 that are likely not eligible for the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, which is awarded to American authors.

The Bee Sting, Paul Murray
Prophet Song, Paul Lynch
The Berry Pickers, Amanda Peters
The Fraud, Zadie Smith
Birnam Wood, Eleanor Catton
The Maniac, Benjamin Labatut

THE FRONTRUNNERS

Consider these to be the heaviest hitters, the most likely contenders, etc. But take this with a grain of salt. It’s very possible that the Pulitzer jury and Board for this year will look for a lesser-known gem after not one but two of the frontrunners from last year won.

North Woods, Daniel Mason 

From the blurb: “This magisterial and highly inventive novel from Pulitzer Prize finalist Daniel Mason brims with love and madness, humor and hope. Following the cycles of history, nature, and even language, North Woods shows the myriad, magical ways in which we’re connected to our environment, to history, and to one another. It is not just an unforgettable novel about secrets and destinies, but a way of looking at the world that asks the timeless question: How do we live on, even after we’re gone?”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Where do I begin? Like Trust last year, North Woods is the most consistently recognized book from 2023. Like Trust, North Woods is a showcase for its author’s incredible writing skill. Like Hernan Diaz, Daniel Mason is a previous finalist for the Pulitzer. And like Trust, North Woods has managed to become one of the most consistently recognized books of the year without winning any major book prizes. The Pulitzer doesn’t always like to recognize books that have fingerprints from other prizes on it, so North Woods still feels primed for recognition.

The case against: The big departure from the Trust template is that North Woods doesn’t feel as politically relevant. Maybe there’s not as much urgency to recognize the message of this book. And there’s this, which I said about Trust last year: “there is a faction of detractors who didn’t enjoy this book nearly as much as the praise would make you think (myself included). And maybe it’s too obvious as a frontrunner? The Pulitzer can love a surprise, and no one would be surprised if Trust ends up winning.” The same is true here.

The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store, James McBride 

From the blurb: “Bringing his masterly storytelling skills and his deep faith in humanity to The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store, James McBride has written a novel as compassionate as Deacon King Kong and as inventive as The Good Lord Bird.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: James McBride has never been in the mix for a Pulitzer before, which truly feels wild. I would have awarded him one for The Good Lord Bird and he was my prediction the year he released Deacon King Kong (The Goldfinch and The Night Watchman won instead). There’s a strong sense that he’s overdue for recognition, and The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store would be a fantastic opportunity to fix that. It’s also a great book.

The case against: The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store hasn’t been as consistently recognized as North Woods. And some of those omissions (like The New York Times Book Review‘s Top Ten) have been surprising. And since McBride has been overlooked before, you have to worry that it will happen again.

Absolution, Alice McDermott 

From the blurb: “A virtuosic new novel from Alice McDermott, one of our most observant, most affecting writers, about folly and grace, obligation, sacrifice, and, finally, the quest for absolution in a broken world.”

Purchase a copy here.

  • Starred review from Kirkus
  • Finalist for the PEN/Faulkner Award for Fiction
  • Previous finalist not once, but three times (for That Night in 1988, At Weddings and Wakes in 1993, and After This in 2007)

The case for: there are a wealth of authors who have come close to winning a Pulitzer and missed who are coming back for another try, and none of them have been in the mix as much as Alice McDermott. An award for Absolution wouldn’t just recognize a great book, it would be recognition for an entire career. Plus, Absolution manages to make a story set during the Vietnam War feel fresh and relevant by focusing on an earlier stage of the war and centering the stories of women.

The case against: there are a wealth of authors who have come close to winning a Pulitzer and missed who are coming back for another try, so there’s a chance McDermott could get crowded out. Of the authors who fit that brief, she’s arguably the least recognizable name. And it appears that Absolution is a bit of a cilantro book–some people love it and some people do not. McDermott’s odds could depend on where the jury sits on that equation.

Tom Lake, Ann Patchett 

From the blurb: “Tom Lake is a meditation on youthful love, married love, and the lives parents have led before their children were born. Both hopeful and elegiac, it explores what it means to be happy even when the world is falling apart. As in all of her novels, Ann Patchett combines compelling narrative artistry with piercing insights into family dynamics. The result is a rich and luminous story, told with profound intelligence and emotional subtlety, that demonstrates once again why she is one of the most revered and acclaimed literary talents working today.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Patchett has a very similar profile to Barbara Kingsolver, who tied for the prize last year: a veteran author with a celebrated career who has been in the mix for the Pulitzer before but hasn’t won. It adds to a sense that she’s overdue for recognition. Plus, Patchett has become a beloved advocate for the whole industry through her bookstore, Parnassus. And Tom Lake is a genuinely good book that a lot of people have already liked–meaning that if she wins here, it won’t feel like a blatant career achievement prize like it did when Louise Erdrich (another celebrated author with an independent bookstore) won for The Night Watchman.

Last year, I also talked about how Demon Copperhead earned even more literary credibility for being a twist on a beloved classic, and Tom Lake‘s focus on Thornton Wilder’s play Our Town fits that bill as well (by the way, Wilder is the only writer to have won a Pulitzer Prize in the Fiction category as well as Drama. And one of those wins in Drama was for Our Town). There are also pointed references to Chekhov.

The case against: Maybe Tom Lake is too subtle? If it wins, I can feel lit snobs rolling their eyes. Even The New York Times Book Review couldn’t resist calling the novel “resolutely folksy” in an otherwise positive review. Some critics have said that Tom Lake feels overly positive, like it’s unwilling to reckon with darkness in life. I don’t think that’s true at all. I think in its way, Tom Lake absolutely shows how thorny and complicated life is. It’s just not doing it in a heavy-handed or negative way. But if the jury includes people who don’t see the low-key brilliance of Tom Lake, it won’t make it over the finish line.

Plus, Tom Lake is missing some of the potential indicators that a Pulitzer win is coming–like inclusion on the ALA Notable list. But you know who else missed that list? Barbara Kingsolver for Demon Copperhead.

STRONG CONTENDERS 

It won’t necessarily be surprising if any of these books win, but each has some mark against it that, to me, also means it won’t be surprising if they don’t win.

The Vulnerables, Sigrid Nunez 

From the blurb: “The Vulnerables reveals what happens when strangers are willing to open their hearts to each other and how far even small acts of caring can go to ease another’s distress. A search for understanding about some of the most critical matters of our time, Nunez’s new novel is also an inquiry into the nature and purpose of writing itself.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: There’s a certain trope when it comes to the Pulitzer where an author has a breakthrough, critical success that puts them on the map, and then their next (or their next-next) book becomes a Pulitzer Prize-winner. Sigrid Nunez had been writing long before she won a National Book Award for Fiction for her 2018 novel The Friend, but the arc of her career since makes this feel like a trajectory that could fit. The Vulnerables feels like the book that could get her across the finish line.

The case against: … Or maybe it will be her next book? The Vulnerables feels more like a novel that people casually love than one they feel passionate about. Maybe it’s another stepping stone and not the destination. It feels like a book that might make the finalist group but not have enough energy to muster support for a win.

Blackouts, Justin Torres 

From the blurb: “A book about storytelling–its legacies, dangers, delights, and potential for change–and a bold exploration of form, art, and love, Justin Torres’s Blackouts uses fiction to see through the inventions of history and narrative. A marvel of creative imagination, it draws on testimony, photographs, illustrations, and a range of influences as it insists that we look long and steadily at what we have inherited and what we have made–a world full of ghostly shadows and flashing moments of truth. A reclamation of ransacked history, a celebration of defiance, and a transformative encounter, Blackouts mines the stories that have been kept from us and brings them into the light.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: You know what I just said about Sigrid Nunez? The same is true for Justin Torres. To be fair, his previous novel, We the Animals, didn’t make waves the way Nunez did with The Friend, but We the Animals has achieved something of a cult following in the years since it was published. And unlike The Vulnerables, Blackouts is much more identifiable as a hit novel from 2023. And maybe, given the politics of the last decade in this country, the Pulitzer Board will respond to the way Blackouts deals with history, truth, and erasure. It worked for Hernan Diaz and Trust.

The case against: It just doesn’t happen often that a National Book Award winner goes on to win the Pulitzer. When it does, it happens because there’s an undeniable contender like Colson Whitehead’s The Underground Railroad. Blackouts feels like it’s approaching that level, but it’s not quite there. The fact that it also didn’t get a starred review from either Kirkus or Publishers Weekly makes it feel like this could be too much of a cilantro book to win anyway. Maybe it’s too experimental? Or maybe it’s too queer (let’s be real, queer representation still has an uphill battle).

Biography of X, Catherine Lacey 

From the blurb: “Pulsing with suspense and intellect while blending nonfiction and fiction, Biography of X is a roaring epic that plumbs the depths of grief, art, and love. In her most ambitious novel yet, Catherine Lacey pushes her craft to its highest level, introducing us to an unforgettable character who, in her tantalizing mystery, shows us the fallibility of the stories we craft for ourselves.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Biography of X has had staying power. It was initially published a year ago at the time of this writing, and its fans are still ardently supporting it. It has a solid pedigree and if this year’s jury wants a capital-L Literary book, this one would be a solid alternative (or companion to) North Woods.

The case against: unlike North Woods, Biography of X is a tough sell to the general public. Its experimental structure may excite critics, but will audiences follow suit? And as with Blackouts, you have to wonder if it may be judged too experimental or queer.

Let Us Descend, Jesmyn Ward 

From the blurb: “From one of the most singularly brilliant and beloved writers of her generation, this miracle of a novel inscribes Black American grief and joy into the very land–the rich but unforgiving forests, swamps, and rivers of the American South. Let Us Descend is Jesmyn Ward’s most magnificent novel yet, a masterwork for the ages.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: It feels like it’s only a matter of time before Jesmyn Ward wins a Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. She jumped into the literary stratosphere after winning the National Book Award for Salvage the Bones, then winning the same prize for her next book, Sing, Unburied, Sing. With a sterling literary reputation, it really feels like Jesmyn Ward is destined to get recognized by the Pulitzer Board at some point–even if that recognition has been frustratingly slow thus far. And it bears pointing out that book awards tend to overlook contemporary black narratives. Penning her first work of historical fiction (and setting it during the Civil War) may catch the attention of this year’s jury in a way Ward’s previous work hasn’t.

The case against: I point this out every year: only two black women have ever won a Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, and it hasn’t happened since 1988. Eventually (I hope), someone is going to get through. But the fact that it hasn’t happened makes it feel like an uphill battle. And although Jesmyn Ward has certainly made a case that she could be the one to do it, Let Us Descend had a much more muted reception than I was anticipating. It had a lot of buzz leading up to its release, and then it just fell silent. It could still happen, but it feels much more likely that people will wait for Ward’s next book given that she still has a long career ahead of her.

The Deluge, Stephen Markley 

From the blurb: “From the Gulf Coast to Los Angeles, the Midwest to Washington, DC, their intertwined odysseys unfold against a stark backdrop of accelerating chaos as they summon courage, galvanize a nation, fall to their own fear, and find wild hope in the face of staggering odds. As their stories hurtle toward a spectacular climax, each faces a reckoning: what will they sacrifice to salvage humanity’s last chance at a future? A singular achievement, The Deluge is a once-in-a-generation novel that meets the moment as few works of art ever have.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: as I mentioned earlier, sometimes Pulitzer recognition comes not long after an author releases a book that was critically adored, but which flew under the radar–especially when it comes to book prizes. Think of Jeffrey Eugenides winning for Middlesex after The Virgin Suicides became a cult favorite (and was adapted into a film by Sofia Coppola). Or Donna Tartt winning for The Goldfinch after The Secret History became a cult favorite. Stephen Markley would fit that mold after Ohio, and while they may be a quieter minority, a lot of people loved The Deluge. And with its focus on climate change, it could earn a lot of credit if the jury wants to make a political statement this year.

The case against: for a book that a lot of people love, The Deluge has had a remarkably quiet presence. Maybe The Deluge is actually another stepping stone toward Markley getting recognized down the line?

I Am Homeless if This Is Not My Home, Lorrie Moore

From the blurb: “Lorrie Moore’s first novel since A Gate at the Stairs–a daring, meditative exploration of love and death, passion and grief, and what it means to be haunted by the past, both by history and the human heart.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: throughout her career, Moore has been building a fanbase that rabidly anticipates her next work. Her last novel, the critically acclaimed A Gate at the Stairs, was a finalist for both the PEN/Faulkner and the Orange Prize (now renamed the Women’s Prize). Her story collection Birds of America is widely viewed as a classic of the form. Moore feels poised for wider acclaim and recognition.

The case against: one thing that keeps coming up when people mention this novel is that it’s catnip for Moore’s existing fans. Whether or not the uninitiated will be as enthusiastic feels up for debate. Regardless, I Am Homeless if This Is Not My Home just hasn’t been the breakout hit that A Gate at the Stairs was.

PREVIOUS FINALISTS 

Having been a finalist for the Pulitzer before isn’t necessarily an indication that a win is only a matter of time, but it does mean that these authors have been on the radars of past juries.

I Have Some Questions for You, Rebecca Makkai

From the blurb: “In I Have Some Questions for You, award-winning author Rebecca Makkai has crafted her most irresistible novel yet: a stirring investigation into collective memory and a deeply felt examination of one woman’s reckoning with her past, with a transfixing mystery at its heart. Timely, hypnotic, and populated with a cast of unforgettable characters, I Have Some Questions for You is at once a compulsive page-turner and a literary triumph.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: the big case here is that David Remnick, the editor of The New Yorker, has been on the Pulitzer Board in recent years. So any book that makes their best-of list could have an advantage if it ends up in the final group.

The case against: … except that The New Yorker‘s best-of list is massive, so many books could arguably get that advantage. And while she has been a finalist before, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of enthusiasm for I Have Some Questions for You.

America Fantastica, Tim O’Brien 

From the blurb: “Just as Tim O’Brien’s modern classic, The Things They Carried, so brilliantly reflected the unromantic truth of war, America Fantastica puts a mirror to a nation and a time that has become dangerously unmoored from truth and greedy for delusion.”

Purchase a copy here.

  • Starred review from Kirkus
  • Starred review from Publishers Weekly

The case for: the Pulitzer jury loved it when Gayl Jones published her first novel after a long absence, so maybe they’ll get excited about Tim O’Brien. The Things They Carried is a landmark book that should have won, so maybe they’ll feel like recognizing O’Brien before it’s too late. The plot description also screams ‘timely.’

The case against: … but given that America Fantastica hasn’t gotten a whole lot of attention, if they do give O’Brien a Pulitzer there’s no denying that everyone will assume it’s a makeup prize for The Things They Carried.

POTENTIAL SURPRISE WINNERS

These books lack the pedigree or profile of the heavier contenders, but they could be come-from-behind stories for the ages if the jury likes them.

Chain-Gang All-Stars, Nana Kwame Adjei-Brenyah 

From the blurb: “Chain-Gang All-Stars is a kaleidoscopic, excoriating look at the American prison system’s unholy alli­ance of systemic racism, unchecked capitalism, and mass incarceration, and a clear-eyed reckoning with what freedom in this country really means.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: in a world with less genre bias, Chain-Gang All-Stars would be a top-tier contender. In terms of recognition, it’s right up there with North Woods and The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store as one of the most talked-about books of 2023–even beating out The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store for a coveted spot on The New York Times Book Review‘s Top Ten Books of the year. Rewarding Chain-Gang All-Stars would be a bold, revolutionary move by both the Pulitzer jury and the Board.

The case against: rewarding Chain-Gang All-Stars would be a bold, revolutionary move by both the Pulitzer jury and the Board. Its pedigree is the only reason I’m listing this book as a potential surprise winner instead of a longshot.

Wellness, Nathan Hill 

From the blurb: “The New York Times best-selling author of The Nix is back with a poignant and witty novel about a modern marriage and the bonds that keep people together. Mining the absurdities of contemporary society, Wellness reimagines the love story with a healthy dose of insight, irony, and heart.”

Purchase a copy here.

  • Starred review from Publishers Weekly

The case for: The Nix was a popular and well-liked debut, and Wellness avoided the dreaded sophomore slump for people who were fans. If there are Hill fans on the jury, you can’t count him out.

The case against: both The Nix and Wellness have cilantro qualities that could just as easily leave this one off the shortlist. I don’t begrudge anyone who likes Hill’s work, but I DNF’ed The Nix and had no interest in Wellness. In short: if you don’t respond to Hill’s charms, you probably can’t be sold on them.

Hangman, Maya Binyam

From the blurb: “This is an uncommonly assured debut: an existential journey; a tragic farce; a slapstick tragedy; and a strange, and strangely honest, story of one man’s stubborn quest to find refuge–in this world and in the world that lies beyond it.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Hangman has refused to be forgotten, popping up just at the moment people might otherwise have forgotten it. If this year’s jury wants to recognize a future talent, Binyam feels like the safest bet.

The case against: farce and slapstick can be wildly divisive qualities. It would take a monumental champion for this book to make it across the finish line.

Dearborn, Ghassan Zeineddine

From the blurb: “By turns wildly funny, incisive, and deeply moving, Dearborn introduces readers to an arresting new voice in contemporary fiction and invites us all to consider what it means to be part of a place and community, and how it is that we help one another survive.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: I nearly deleted Dearborn from my list because it feels so low-profile (on top of being a short story collection). But with recent events, maybe the Pulitzer jury and Board would consider a story that references conflicts in Israel?

The case against: this still feels like a very low-profile book. And there’s that short story bias–they just don’t win the Pulitzer often, and no true story collection has won since Interpreter of Maladies in 2000. Since then, only two collections of linked stories have won. And while Dearborn flirts with linking its stories together, it mostly follows the format of a true story collection.

Temple Folk, Aaliyah Bilal

From the blurb: “With an unflinching eye for the contradictions between what these characters profess to believe and what they do, Temple Folk accomplishes the rare feat of presenting moral failures with compassion, nuance, and humor to remind us that while perfection is what many of us strive for, it’s the errors that make us human.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Temple Folk shines a light on an American community all too often overlooked–and when it is portrayed, it’s usually done with a thick layer of stereotypes. Aaliyah Bilal does a lot to undo those stereotypes with nuance and grace. Aaliyah Bilal also got a big spotlight when she was selected to read the controversial statement made by finalists at the National Book Award ceremony about the conflict in Israel and Gaza.

The case against: that short story bias is murder. And as with anything controversial, there’s a flip side. Although the statement read by Bilal received a standing ovation at the National Book Award ceremony, it was also the source of a great deal of anger.

Witness, Jamel Brinkley 

From the blurb: “With prose as upendingly beautiful as it is artfully, seamlessly crafted, Jamel Brinkley offers nothing less than the full scope of life and death and change in the great, unending drama of the city.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: with a pedigree as strong as this, it’s kind of shocking that this isn’t a stronger contender than it is. This feels like it has a good shot at being a finalist.

The case against: I’m telling you, that short story bias is murder. A novel with all these bona fides would have a much likelier shot. And it appears that Witness is a bit of a cilantro book among the Pulitzer discussion Discord I am part of. So sure, this feels like it has a good shot at being a finalist. But it’s likely that’s where the story would end.

Tremor, Teju Cole

From the blurb: “Tremor is a startling work of realism and invention that engages brilliantly with literature, music, race, and history as it examines the passage of time and how we mark it. It is a reckoning with human survival amidst “history’s own brutality, which refuses symmetries and seldom consoles,” but it is also a testament to the possibility of joy. As he did in his magnificent debut Open City, Teju Cole once again offers narration with all its senses alert, a surprising and deeply essential work from a beacon of contemporary literature.”

Purchase a copy here.

  • Starred review from Kirkus
  • Starred review from Publishers Weekly
  • National Book Critics Circle Award finalist

The case for: like Lorrie Moore, Teju Cole has been steadily building a fanbase. For the first time since his debut novel, Open City, he’s been back in the popular conversation once again, giving him a decent (if difficult) path to a Pulitzer.

The case against: Cole’s fiction trends toward the experimental, and like Nathan Hill, if you don’t respond to his style, you are unlikely to be swayed to vote for it. I was not a fan of Open City and have never felt interested in picking up another of Cole’s books.

The Lost Journals of Sacajewea, Debra Magpie Earling 

From the blurb: “Written in lyrical, dreamlike prose, The Lost Journals of Sacajewea is an astonishing work of art and a powerful tale of perseverance–the Indigenous woman’s story that hasn’t been told.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: if this year’s jury wants to do some work to correct the way indigenous stories and authors have been largely overlooked in the past, this would be a great step. The people I know who liked this book are passionate about getting it into the hands of more readers.

The case against: To me, this feels more like a book that would be a finalist than a book that would win, if that makes sense.

PREVIOUS WINNERS 

It’s exceptionally rare for a writer to win more than one Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. Only four people have done it (Booth Tarkington, William Faulkner, John Updike, and Colson Whitehead). So there’s a steep uphill climb for any of these authors to win, but since Colson Whitehead did it recently (and is even in the mix again this year), it’s always possible that the stigma against repeat wins could be going away.

This Other Eden, Paul Harding 

From the blurb: “A spellbinding story of resistance and survival, This Other Eden is an enduring testament to the struggle to preserve human dignity in the face of intolerance and injustice.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: If any previous winner stands a chance this year, Paul Harding feels like the surest bet. Although it’s been a cilantro book, This Other Eden is far and away one of the most celebrated books of 2023. And like North Woods, This Other Eden has amassed a significant pedigree without getting any fingerprints from other prizes on it too badly, which means it still might feel like fair game to the Pulitzer Board.

The case against: There’s the cilantro aspect: the people who don’t like This Other Eden tend to viscerally dislike it. And the fact that it’s historically difficult to win more than one Pulitzer is an incredible hurdle.

Roman Stories, Jhumpa Lahiri 

From the blurb: “These are splendid, searching stories, written in Jhumpa Lahiri’s adopted language of Italian and seamlessly translated by the author and by Knopf editor Todd Portnowitz. Stories steeped in the moods of Italian master Alberto Moravia and guided, in the concluding tale, by the ineluctable ghost of Dante Alighieri, whose words lead the protagonist toward a new way of life.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Jhumpa Lahiri is a prime example of someone who won a Pulitzer for their debut, then went on to fulfill the promise of that debut. She’s still releasing gorgeous books, and Roman Stories is a fascinating return to where she started while simultaneously pushing forward into new territory.

The case against: Jhumpa Lahiri’s evolution into living and writing in Italy doesn’t exactly tie in with the Pulitzer’s mandate to recognize fiction that portrays American life. This book is so Italian that it had to be translated into English in order to be published here. Which makes me wonder if this book would even be eligible. A translated book has been a finalist before (Rabbis and Wives by Chaim Grade in 1983), but in that case the author had immigrated to the United States and continued to publish in his native language, Yiddish. Lahiri is kind of the opposite. If this wins, it will be shocking.

Day, Michael Cunningham 

From the blurb: “A “quietly stunning” (Ocean Vuong) exploration of love and loss, the struggles and limitations of family life–and how we all must learn to live together and apart–from the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Hours.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: after This Other Eden, Day feels like the likeliest bet for a previous winner. Despite the surprising lack of pedigree, I’ve heard several people rave about this book, which means that its fans are passionate about it. Maybe it has a quiet underdog story in the making?

The case against: it just feels so quiet. Three months after it was released, it almost feels like this novel never even existed. And, of course, there’s the stigma against previous winners.

Be Mine, Richard Ford

From the blurb: “From Pulitzer Prize winner Richard Ford: the final novel in the world of Frank Bascombe, one of the most indelible characters in American literature … In this memorable novel, Richard Ford puts on display the prose, wit, and intelligence that make him one of our most acclaimed living writers. Be Mine is a profound, funny, poignant love letter to our beleaguered world.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Richard Bascombe may not be as known as Rabbit Angstrom, but there are some interesting parallels between these series by Richard Ford and John Updike. Both use an average man as a stand-in for commentary on the state of the world, and both authors won their first Pulitzer for a later installment in the series. Updike got his second Pulitzer when he returned to Rabbit for a farewell in Rabbit, Rest. Since this is presumed to be the final Bascombe story (Richard Ford is 80 at the time of this writing), could history be getting ready to repeat itself?

The case against: similarities aside, John Updike was regarded by many to be one of the great American writers at the time he won a second Pulitzer. While Richard Ford has great fans, he doesn’t have the same level of stature. And Be Mine had a relatively quiet release, which means for this to happen it would require at least one jury member to be a big fan of Richard Ford.

Disruptions, Steven Millhauser

From the blurb: “An exquisite new collection from a Pulitzer Prize-winning master of the short story, the culmination of a five-decade career: work that takes us beneath the placid surface of suburban life into the elusive strangeness of the everyday.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Steven Millhauser may not have the profile of many previous winners, but he’s continued releasing respectable, well-regarded work.

The case against: first, there’s the short story problem. While Millhauser is considered a master of the short story format, even he won his Pulitzer for a novel. And while his work is pretty consistently held in high esteem, it can also be a bit too bizarre for many readers.

Crook Manifesto, Colson Whitehead

From the blurb: “CROOK MANIFESTO is a darkly funny tale of a city under siege, but also a sneakily searching portrait of the meaning of family. Colson Whitehead’s kaleidoscopic portrait of Harlem is sure to stand as one of the all-time great evocations of a place and a time.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Colson Whitehead has already made history by winning a second Pulitzer, and his books remain popular and celebrated. Crook Manifesto, a sequel to Harlem Shuffle, continues Whitehead’s recent trend of imbuing what appears to be a thriller on its surface with resonant historical and societal detail.

The case against: Of all the previous winners contending this year, Colson Whitehead feels like the least likely to break through, even if only because he’s already done it before. Two Pulitzer Prizes has happened. Three is unheard of. Plus, Crook Manifesto continues a departure from the style and genre of the two novels that won Whitehead his Pulitzers.

LOVABLE LONGSHOTS 

Is there a chance that one of these books will win the Pulitzer? Sure. Is it likely? Not really.

Open Throat, Henry Hoke

From the blurb: “Henry Hoke’s Open Throat is a marvel of storytelling, a universal journey through a wondrous and menacing world recounted by a lovable mountain lion. Feral and vulnerable, profound and playful, Open Throat is a star-making novel that brings the mythic to life.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Hoke’s novella, following a queer-coded mountain lion as it navigates the periphery of contemporary Los Angeles, sounds like an unlikely contender for anything. Against all odds, it became a buzzy book that got a lot of people excited.

The case against: … but would the Pulitzer Board, a frequently stodgy and traditional group, respond to a book like this? Probably not.

In Memoriam, Alice Winn

From the blurb: “A haunting, virtuosic debut novel about two young men who fall in love during World War I … An epic tale of both the devastating tragedies of war and the forbidden romance that blooms in its grip, In Memoriam is a breathtaking debut.”

Purchase a copy here:

The case for: while it’s been a bit of a cilantro book since it was released, a lot of people have been hoping for In Memoriam to have the breakout moment they feel it deserves.

The case against: I just assumed that this book was from a British author–which, you know, shame on me, but I think it goes to show that this book might not fit the brief if this year’s jury takes the part about representing American life seriously. And while a lot of people predicted that In Memoriam would have a big presence on the book award circuit, it hasn’t turned out that way.

The Reformatory, Tananarive Due

From the blurb: “The Reformatory is a haunting work of historical fiction written as only American Book Award-winning author Tananarive Due could, by piecing together the life of the relative her family never spoke of and bringing his tragedy and those of so many others at the infamous Dozier School for Boys to the light in this riveting novel.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: sure, it’s a piece of genre fiction, flirting with horror conventions, but there’s a growing fanbase for this type of story–and ALA recognition shows that Tananarive Due could have crossover appeal.

The case against: … except that if the Pulitzer were going to recognize a horror book, would they go for one that has a subject so similar to recent ‘literary’ winner The Nickel Boys?

The Late Americans, Brandon Taylor

From the blurb: “A novel of friendship and chosen family, The Late Americans asks fresh questions about love and sex, ambition and precarity, and about how human beings can bruise one another while trying to find themselves. It is Brandon Taylor’s richest and most involving work of fiction to date, confirming his position as one of our most perceptive chroniclers of contemporary life.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: Brandon Taylor is an up-and-coming author who built a solid profile for himself when his debut, Real Life, was shortlisted for the Booker Prize.

The case against: everything Taylor has released since Real Life has had a considerably lower profile. I confess that I had completely forgotten about this book until I started reviewing 2023 releases.

Yellowface, R.F. Kuang

From the blurb: “With its totally immersive first-person voice, Yellowface grapples with questions of diversity, racism, and cultural appropriation, as well as the terrifying alienation of social media. R.F. Kuang’s novel is timely, razor-sharp, and eminently readable.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: recognizing one of the buzziest, bestselling books of 2023–one outside the usual parameters of the Pulitzer, and one that satirizes the publishing industry no less–would be an incredibly bold move.

The case against: recognizing Yellowface would feel even bolder, more revolutionary, and wilder than if they went with Chain-Gang All-Stars. Plus, in my opinion, the satire loses steam about halfway through the novel.

Y/N, Esther Yi

From the blurb: “Surreal, hilarious, and shrewdly poignant, Y/N is a provocative literary debut about the universal longing for transcendence and the tragic struggle to assert one’s singular story amidst the amnesiac effects of globalization. Esther Yi’s prose unsettles the boundary between high and mass art, exploding our expectations of a novel about “identity” and offering in its place a sui generis picture of the loneliness that afflicts modern life.”

Purchase a copy here.

The case for: the amount of attention that has been lobbed at this debut shows that the people who admire it are willing to go to bat for it.

The case against: … but maybe that only goes so far?

My Prediction

Heading into the end of 2023, it felt like history was repeating. Last year, it felt like Demon Copperhead and Trust were poised for a battle royale. I thought that’s what was happening this year with North Woods and The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store. But the field is a lot wider than that. You can’t ignore Absolution, Tom Lake, and Blackouts. And there are really strong dark horse contenders in Let Us Descend, The Vulnerables, and Biography of X. So let’s take a moment to celebrate a powerful year for fiction.

My real suspicion for the Pulitzer is that after a tie last year–a tie between the two biggest books of the year, no less–the Pulitzer jury and Board will probably snap back in the other direction. I think we’re more likely to have a year like 2022, when the three finalists were lesser-known books and The Netanyahus emerged victorious. The problem is that it’s very difficult to predict what lesser-known book they might gravitate toward because those books are definitionally lesser-known. I think there’s a strong possibility that we won’t have a big, known book as the winner this year.

But I need to pick a specific book or else this is no fun. I’m going to drop the potential dark horse contenders: Let Us Descend because it’s likely that Jesmyn Ward will be back with a book people like more, The Vulnerables because I think there’s a more likely candidate if the jury is going to respond to pandemic fiction about human connection, and Biography of X because it’s hard to know when the jury will be into more experimental fiction. I’m also going to let go of Blackouts simply because it’s unusual for the National Book Award and Pulitzer to agree.

That leaves me with North Woods, The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store, Absolution, and Tom Lake. And what a fantastic group of four this is! You could make a strong case for any of these titles.

The smart money is on North Woods. It feels like the likeliest winner. If I were making a prediction solely based on the intellectual side of looking at the odds, I would absolutely tell you North Woods is my pick.

This year, I’ve decided not to guess with my brain, though. Maybe I feel recklessly emboldened by naming the two books that tied last year as my top two contenders, and maybe that allows me to feel free to go a bit rogue. I don’t have to prove anything anymore. And I just wasn’t that excited about North Woods compared to the other three books.

So I’ve decided to narrow my prediction down to The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store and Tom Lake. And again, the smart money says I should pick The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store. Of the two, it’s the book that has been in the Pulitzer conversation longer and harder. And James McBride feels wildly overdue for recognition by the Pulitzer. This would be a great win, and I would be thrilled to see it get the prize.

But I’m going with Tom Lake instead. It feels like it took a while for people to really start taking this book seriously (myself included), but I’ve noticed a surge of enthusiasm for Tom Lake in recent weeks. When I read it, I thought it was great, but it was only after I sat with it in the weeks and months after I finished that I truly started to appreciate what Ann Patchett achieved with this book. Simply put, Tom Lake has burrowed a place in my soul. I didn’t expect that. But it did.

I can feel people groaning and complaining that Tom Lake feels slight or doesn’t feel like “serious” literature. I think a lot of people have a harder time appreciating subtle, observant works about life and human connection. It’s much easier to recognize capital-L Literature like North Woods. But that doesn’t mean that what Tom Lake achieves is insignificant. I’m actually more impressed with Patchett’s subtlety.

Furthermore, like James McBride, Ann Patchett is starting to feel overdue. It worked for Barbara Kingsolver last year and for Louise Erdrich three years ago. What could give Patchett the edge over McBride is that she has become a champion for literature thanks to her independent bookstore, Parnassus. She isn’t just producing great books, she’s out on the frontlines introducing readers to other authors. She’s fighting book bans and censorship. She has become a voice for literature, using the platform that her readers give her to get more books sold–not just for her, but for all authors.

A win for Tom Lake wouldn’t just be recognition for a great novel. It would be recognition for someone who has become a champion for the whole publishing industry.

I also really appreciate how Tom Lake is a story of connection, family, survival, coping, and moving on in difficult times. Yes, it’s specifically relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the way the central cherry orchard becomes an oasis from a difficult world could be about any of the global and domestic crises causing anxiety today and beyond.

So, I’m going with Tom Lake. But rest assured, I would be over the moon if James McBride wins instead. And I won’t be surprised if it’s North Woods. At the end of the day, I’m actually feeling ready to celebrate no matter what wins (famous last words). 2023 was a great year for literature, yielding a fantastic crop of contenders. You don’t always get so lucky.

Let me know what you think might win the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, what you would like to see win, and all of that good stuff in the comments.

Pulitzer Prize for Fiction Prediction for 2024

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