Predicting which books will become classics is essentially a fool’s errand. There’s just no way to tell which books people will still be talking about in a hundred years or so. Books that are wildly popular when they are first published can fade away with time, while books that were overlooked can gain audiences. The Great Gatsby was a commercial disappointment when it was first released in 1925. It was only when it was published as a cheap paperback for soldiers during WWII that it became wildly popular.
But I’ve been thinking about which recent books might still be considered classics down the road, and the recent release of The New York Times‘ list of the Best Books of the 21st Century so far (and its accompanying readers list) made me feel like the time is right to speculate. Because some of the recent inclusions from the Times don’t seem like they will last to me–and a lot of the books on the readers list seem to suffer from a recency bias.
The Best Odds
Demon Copperhead, Barbara Kingsolver
The enormous popularity of Demon Copperhead is probably enough to help it earn classic status, but it also has a mean pedigree: tying for the Pulitzer and winning a Women’s Prize. If that isn’t enough, I think Demon‘s connection to Charles Dickens and David Copperfield will seal the deal.
James, Percival Everett
You could pretty easily make a case of a different novel by Percival Everett when considering future classics: his Booker Prize-shortlisted The Trees. In some ways, there’s a stronger argument for that book since we have a track record for The Trees displaying pop culture staying power. However, I also think The Trees is a bit more divisive than James. Only one novel that was published in 2024 made it onto the reader’s list of The New York Times‘ Best Books of the 21st Century, and it was James, and that actually feels correct. I think Percival Everett is an author who is destined to be classic in the future, and James is probably the book of his that is most likely to get him there. It feels like more of a consensus choice, something that a majority of people can get behind. Is a lot of that to do with the fact that James is a spin on an American literary classic? Yes. Does it also feel less prickly than The Trees (in other words, less likely to alienate white readers uncomfortable with heavy discussions of race)? Also yes. Is it a shame that we need to consider the comfort level of white readers? Also also yes.
The Underground Railroad, Colson Whitehead
This was the most popular book the year it was published, it won a Pulitzer, and it does not feel like enthusiasm for The Underground Railroad has lost an inch of momentum. Perhaps it will in time, but it hasn’t yet.
Hamnet, Maggie O’Farrell
I nearly put this in the ‘very likely’ category instead simply because Hamnet was a surprise absence on the Times list. Does that indicate that support for this beautiful novel is waning? It could. But as I reflect on it, I think there’s still a lot of love for this book. It made it up to 22 on the Readers list, for one thing. But I also think Hamnet will continue to be relevant as part of Shakespeare scholarship, if nothing else. And there’s a movie adaptation coming. One thing I’ve learned is that a successful film adaptation can help a book’s reputation endure.
Milkman, Anna Burns
I was all set to include this as a sure shot until Milkman failed to make both the Times list of the best 100 books of the 21st century so far and the reader’s list. That felt shocking to me because when I initially asked which books from the last decade could be future classics, Milkman was the most common answer. Personally, I still think it will get there. But the fact that it missed both lists gives me a bit of pause.
Salvage the Bones, Jesmyn Ward
There’s a good chance that Ward will be most remembered for Sing, Unburied, Sing, but when discussing Ward’s work with other readers recently, it appears that Salvage the Bones is the one most fondly remembered. Of course, it’s also possible that Ward has more future classics in store for us.
Song of Achilles, Madeline Miller
I mostly include Song of Achilles because of reader enthusiasm, but if you don’t find that convincing, consider that Song of Achilles also won a Women’s Prize for Fiction (back when it was still known as the Orange Prize).
Lincoln in the Bardo, George Saunders
Saunders was one of three authors to make the Times list three times–the most of any author. That felt like a lot, but he nearly repeated the feat by making it to the reader’s list twice. That probably indicates that he has the critical and popular success to endure–the question is what for? Saunders is mostly a writer of short stories, so maybe Tenth of December? But his lone novel (so far), Lincoln in the Bardo won a Booker Prize and outranked Saunders’ other books on both lists. To me, that means enthusiasm is probably on the side of Lincoln in the Bardo.
Outside Chances
There There, Tommy Orange
I had been feeling that in the years since it was published, sentiment on There There was mellowing too much for it to attain classic status. But then The Wandering Stars, a sorta-sequel, sorta-prequel was published and made it onto the longlist for the Booker Prize. Now, there’s a chance that means that Wandering Stars is the future classic–but since that book hasn’t made a James-sized splash, I’m going to assume that the predecessor is the one that will stand out. I just don’t have enough information to say otherwise.
Tin Man, Sarah Winman
It feels like in order to be a classic, you need consensus from audiences AND literati. Audiences love Tin Man, but you don’t hear much about it in literary circles. But it’s a great book, and one that I think could be timeless.
Matrix, Lauren Groff
Unlike Tin Man, Matrix has adoration from audiences and industry people like critics. But somehow, it still feels a bit low profile somehow. I think earlier books like Fates and Furies are too divisive, so maybe Groff’s future classic is still to come?
Trust, Hernan Diaz
A lot of people will probably disagree with me on this, but I think Trust is a book that will fade away over time. Part of what made it feel so urgent or relevant when it was published is that the economic angle felt timely when read at a time when corporations and money markets were taking advantage of a pandemic to drive prices up. But the fact that Trust is set around the Great Depression and resonates with anyone who lived through the economic downturn of 2008 and the pandemic could show that it will ultimately be timeless. We’ll just have to wait and see.
North Woods, Daniel Mason
Maybe I’m biased because I wasn’t such a fan of this book compared to others, but I think a lot of people are excited about North Woods right now… and I think in a couple of years people won’t be talking about it anywhere near as much as they are right now. But maybe I’m wrong? Only time will tell.
All the Light We Cannot See, Anthony Doerr
Here’s the thing: there’s a great deal of reader enthusiasm for this book. And it has street cred–it won a Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. But it’s the reader enthusiasm that makes me wonder if this could be a future classic. When the Times list of the 100 Best Books of the 21st Century was released, one of the omissions most frequently passionately argued for in my comment section was All the Light We Cannot See. That energy propelled it to a second place finish on the reader list. But enthusiasm can wane over time. My big example talking about this phenomenon in my reaction video was Jhuma Lahiri’s The Namesake: in the years after it was published, people loved that book. It seemed destined to be a classic. Twenty years later, it didn’t make either list from the Times. It’s hard to tell if All the Light We Cannot See is going to suffer a similar fate or if it’s the real deal.
A Little Life, Hanya Yanagihara
The case here is much the same as All the Light We Cannot See, except that reader enthusiasm only took this book to 11th place. Since A Little Life is so divisive among readers (for the record, I am among those who did not like it at all), it has a tough road to achieve the overall good regard needed to become a classic. But the people who love it? Would fight for it.
Books I Would Love to Be Classics
The Love Songs of W.E.B. du Bois, Honoree Fannone Jeffers
The Good Lord Bird, James McBride
Homegoing, Yaa Gyasi
The Secret Lives of Church Ladies, Deesha Philyaw
Night of the Living Rez, Morgan Talty
Supposedly Fun 