Supposedly Fun

Hi, My name is Greg, and I’m a Pulitzer Prize addict. It’s been one year since my last prediction video, which means it’s time to guess what will win the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction in 2025. The winner won’t be announced until May (there isn’t an official date at the time I’m writing this), but I just can’t wait. This is one of my favorite things to do every year.

In truth, this is a fool’s errand. To try to predict the Pulitzer, you have to make a stab in the dark. It’s the only major literary prize with no longlist and no list of finalists. You do not know which books are under consideration. You don’t even know who the jury is because the Pulitzer Board prefers them to remain anonymous until the prize is announced (essentially to prevent campaigning. I have a whole video about it). You only get one shot to get it right, and you don’t get any hints to help along the way. That does make it fun… if a little maddening.

There aren’t even any consistent indicators for what might be on its way to a win. Sometimes, the ALA Notable Titles are helpful, but more often, they aren’t. Sometimes, the PEN/Faulkner longlist gives you a good idea, but most of the time, it doesn’t (and the winner of the PEN/Faulkner almost never lines up with the Pulitzer). The most consistent indicator is that the Pulitzer winner usually has a starred review from Kirkus, Publishers Weekly, or both. But a lot of books can claim that status, so you still have a lot of options.

I got very lucky with my 2023 prediction, but I was way off the mark last year. To be fair, though, most people were. And I do credit myself for saying that my real prediction was that we would end up with a lesser-known winner. I did a good job with that. But I’m still hoping for some redemption. Let’s see if I get it.

First, I’ll explain how the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction is awarded. Then we’ll go in this order: the books I think are frontrunners, the books that might be strong contenders, authors who have been finalists in the past who might be in the mix again, potential surprise winners, some lovable longshots, and finally: my prediction.

How It Works

The first thing to know is that when we talk about the Pulitzer Prizes for 2025, we are talking about work released in 2024. Like the Academy Awards, the Pulitzers are awarded after the submission period (AKA the calendar year) has ended.

The Pulitzer Board is very secretive and insular, so we don’t know what the current process for selection is, but the basic format is the same as when the Pulitzer Prize originated. A jury is named for each category. They go through the submissions. We don’t get to know who the jury is until the prize is announced (again, this is to prevent authors or publishers from campaigning, as far as I can tell). The jury narrows it down to finalists–usually three. They do not get to pick a winner. Historically, the jury was allowed to recommend to the Board which title they thought should win, and the Board could either go with their choice or go rogue. Again, the process is murky, but as recently as 2012, it did not appear that the jury was allowed to recommend to the Board anymore. They could only present the finalists with an explanation for why each title was selected. If the Board is unsatisfied with what they have been presented with, there are indications that they can ask for an additional finalist or ask the jury why a specific title was not presented to them. Or, they could opt not to award any prize at all–although this is unlikely to happen again (or at least any time soon) after the controversy that came in 2012 when the Board failed to select a winner. The Board can also decide to have no winner if they fail to reach a majority decision. A book needs at least 50% of the Board to vote for it to win. But clearly, since the Board allowed a tie in 2023, they have made some adjustments in that area.

This selection process isn’t entirely unlike how it works for the Booker or the Women’s Prize, but in those cases, the jury has significantly more control over the outcome. For the Pulitzer, the Board has the final say.

The Pulitzer also has a mandate that needs to be considered, although how it is applied can be very murky: “For distinguished fiction published in book form during the year by an American author, preferably dealing with American life.” Different juries and Boards have had very different interpretations of how much (or how little) each part of that mandate needs to be considered. I could spend a lot of time listing instances where they bent the rule about publication (Train Dreams in 2012, had been published in The Paris Review ten years before it arrived in book form), the part about dealing with American life (The Orphan Master’s Son in 2013, which is entirely set in North Korea), and that the prize should go to an American (Carol Shields had immigrated to Canada when she won for The Stone Diaries, which was a finalist for the Booker Prize the same year–in an era when Americans weren’t supposed to be eligible for the Booker), but I’ll leave it at those three examples.

This is also the first year that the citizenship requirement has been expanded to include longtime and permanent residents of the United States. It had previously required the winner to be an American citizen. Citizenship has always been a murky requirement to unpack (again, look at the case of Carol Shields), so it is unclear if this will make a difference–or how much.

The Frontrunners

These are the books that feel most likely to triumph. But take that with a massive grain of salt because, as we saw last year, sometimes the Pulitzer values a surprise more than recognizing the book most people think will win. This year’s jury may correct course (because I often feel that each jury is responding to their predecessors’ decision in some way). But maybe they won’t. We just don’t know.

James, Percival Everett

From the blurb: “Brimming with the electrifying humor and lacerating observations that have made Everett a “literary icon” (Oprah Daily), and one of the most decorated writers of our lifetime, James is destined to be a cornerstone of twenty-first century American literature.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence
• ALA Notable Title
• Starred review from Kirkus
• Kirkus Prize winner
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• A Publishers Weekly Best Book of 2024
• National Book Critics Circle Award finalist
• The New York Times Book Review‘s Best Books of 2024
• A Washington Post Best Book of 2024
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s #1 Fiction Book of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Booker Prize shortlist
• National Book Award for Fiction winner
• Pen/Faulkner Award for Fiction finalist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024
• In development as a feature film to be produced by Steven Spielberg
• Previous Pulitzer finalist (for Telephone in 2021)

Pros: If there is a frontrunner for this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, this is it. James was building buzz that this would finally bring a Pulitzer home for Percival Everett before it was even published. It has been the conversation piece of the literary world for over a year now. And it isn’t just a hype machine: the accolades have been piling up to show that James is a very real contender. And while winning the National Book Award is usually a negative indicator, since the Pulitzer rarely agrees with the NBA, the times when it does agree are when a book is undeniable. The last time they aligned, it was for Colson Whitehead’s The Underground Railroad. James feels like it has the same undeniable quality. Plus, clever twists on classic literature have historically had some sway with Pulitzer juries. Just ask Demon Copperhead or March.

Cons: As with any book, there are detractors, but I think the real threat to a James win is its own success. If it does win, no one will really be surprised. It probably wouldn’t feel exciting for many readers (which, to me, is ludicrous: if Serena Williams is going for a historic grand slam, do you start groaning that it’s time for someone else to win? No. You do not). It’s short-term thinking. Rewarding another book might feel dramatic in the moment, but I think people fifty years from now would be scratching their heads in confusion. Still, being an obvious frontrunner has drawbacks. Just look at what happened last year.

Martyr!, Kaveh Akbar

From the blurb: “A newly sober, orphaned son of Iranian immigrants, guided by the voices of artists, poets, and kings, embarks on a remarkable search for a family secret that leads him to a terminally ill painter living out her final days in the Brooklyn Museum. Electrifying, funny, and wholly original, Martyr! heralds the arrival of an essential new voice in contemporary fiction.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence finalist
• ALA Notable Title
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• The New York Times Book Review‘s Best Books of 2024
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s Best Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• National Book Award for Fiction finalist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: Advance buzz for this book had an air of ascendancy, anointing a major new(ish) literary talent. Sometimes, that buzz falls flat. It didn’t with Martyr! Momentum never really slowed down. And while Martyr! never fully got out of James‘ shadow, it has steadily kept pace. Maybe this is a case where the tortoise will beat the hare?

Cons: There’s that shadow problem, for one thing. James has always been two steps ahead. Another thing is that Martyr! is a bit more of a cilantro book than James (people either love it or hate it). I haven’t read it yet, but a lot seems to depend on the reader’s willingness to go in the direction Akbar takes them–and what they make of the ending. That hasn’t seemed to dampen enthusiasm from critics, though.

The real thing is, there’s a bigger problem for Martyr! Because while most of 2024 felt like we were gearing up for a heavy bout between James and Martyr!, something curious and surprising happened…

All Fours, Miranda July

… All Fours just. kept. showing. up. on year-end best-of lists, longlists, and shortlists.

From the blurb: “Part absurd entertainment, part tender reinvention of the sexual, romantic, and domestic life of a forty-five-year-old female artist, All Fours transcends expectation while excavating our beliefs about life lived as a woman. Once again, July hijacks the familiar and turns it into something new and thrillingly, profoundly alive.”

• ALA Notable Title
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• A Publishers Weekly Best Book of 2024
• The New York Times Book Review‘s Best Books of 2024
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• A Washington Post Notable Book
• Time Magazine’s Best Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Women’s Prize for Fiction longlist
• Carol Shields Prize for Fiction longlist
• National Book Award for Fiction finalist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: All Fours didn’t have the feel of a contender when it was initially released–even after it was included on the longlist (and then the shortlist) for the National Book Award. After all, the NBA and the Pulitzer rarely line up. Then, as I said, it just kept appearing out of the blue. I had thought we were past that when 2024 closed, but then it popped up again on the ALA Notable list and the longlists for both The Women’s Prize and the Carol Shields Prize. It’s the book that simply cannot be kept down. At this point, we can’t even consider it an underdog anymore. Its pedigree makes it just as much of a frontrunner as James at this point. There’s a very real possibility that All Fours will pull off a win, and if it does, we can’t even consider it an upset (although I, for one, would be upset).

Cons: Despite all that praise, All Fours is an absolute cilantro book. The more it has continued to show up, the more I’ve run into people who read All Fours and feel utterly confounded that it has become so beloved and celebrated. It’s at the point where people have become irritated by how omnipresent Miranda July is. James may have its detractors, but even they have expressed that they’re okay with its success. But the ragged discourse surrounding All Fours probably won’t matter because critics and people in the literary world (AKA the people who will be on the Pulitzer jury) have absolutely loved it. I guess the only case against it, then, is that I really feel like handing the prize to All Fours the year after giving it to Night Watch would turn a lot of people off of the Pulitzer. Which isn’t even really a case against it. This could very well happen. We need to be prepared for that.

For full disclosure, I have not read All Fours because I had a negative experience with a previous book by Miranda July, so I promised myself that I would only read it if it does end up winning. I’m not pretending to understand the ins and outs of the book–all of this is based on past experience with the author, reading the tea leaves, and talking with a lot of readers about this book over the last few months.

Wandering Stars, Tommy Orange

From the blurb: “In a novel that is by turns shattering and wondrous, Tommy Orange has conjured the ancestors of the family readers first fell in love with in There There—warriors, drunks, outlaws, addicts—asking what it means to be the children and grandchildren of massacre. Wandering Stars is a novel about epigenetic and generational trauma that has the force and vision of a modern epic, an exceptionally powerful new book from one of the most exciting writers at work today and soaring confirmation of Tommy Orange’s monumental gifts.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence longlist
• ALA Notable Title
• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Booker Prize longlist
• Previous Pulitzer finalist (for There There in 2019)

Pros: Tommy Orange nearly crossed the finish line with his debut, There There, and this is both a prequel and a sequel to that book. The fact that Orange became the first Native American longlisted for the Booker Prize speaks to his ability to go the distance a second time around. Plus, of the four frontrunners I’m identifying, only Wandering Stars and James would fit the bill if the Pulitzer jury (and Board) want to send a political message in these trying times.

Cons: When people began reading through the Booker longlist, the discourse surrounding Wandering Stars was mixed, and then it failed to make the shortlist. This adds to an overall feeling that Wandering Stars has been crowded out of the spotlight by the other three frontrunners.

Strong Contenders

It won’t necessarily be surprising if any of these books win, but each has some mark against it that, to me, also means it won’t be surprising if they don’t win.

My Friends, Hisham Matar

From the blurb: “A devastating meditation on friendship and family, and the ways in which time tests—and frays—those bonds, My Friends is an achingly beautiful work of literature by an author working at the peak of his powers.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence longlist
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• A Publishers Weekly Best Book of 2024
• National Book Critics Circle Award winner
• A Washington Post Best Book of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Booker Prize longlist
• Orwell Prize for Political Fiction winner
• National Book Award for Fiction finalist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: It’s a bit of a cliche to call a book “timely” or “urgent” (something I do regularly 😬), but here we are. On top of that, one of the most common themes people celebrate when discussing this book is how it centers on friendship and family. This book has a lot of fans, and if one of them is on the jury, it has a real shot at being a finalist.

Cons: In theory, My Friends should be right up there with Martyr! In reality, it feels like this has lost some momentum compared to the frontrunners. And although My Friends was a finalist for the National Book Award, the citizenship factor is a bit murky. Matar was born in New York City but is also described as a British-Libyan novelist. He currently lives in London but also teaches at Barnard College. Maybe that won’t be an issue since Matar was born in the U.S. (and especially with increased flexibility regarding the citizenship requirement for the Pulitzer), but maybe it will? Regardless, there’s also the fact that the setting for this book takes it away from the mandate to reflect American life. Unless they want to play it fast and loose with that mandate.

Creation Lake, Rachel Kushner

From the blurb: “From Rachel Kushner, two-time finalist for both the Booker Prize and National Book Award, a “vital” (The Washington Post) and “wickedly entertaining” (The Guardian) novel about a seductive and cunning American woman who infiltrates an anarchist collective in France—a propulsive page-turner filled with dark humor.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Booker Prize shortlist
• Pen/Faulkner Award for Fiction longlist
• National Book Award for Fiction longlist

Pros: Kushner has been steadily building the amount of literary cred that makes it hard to believe she hasn’t won yet. If this year’s jury wants to reward an author who has (so far) been coming up short of the blue ribbon, and if they want to send an ecological message a la The Overstory, this could be their chance.

Cons: All books have lovers and haters, but Creation Lake seems to be a cilantro book on the scale of All Fours. Plus, if the Pulitzer really wants to recognize Kushner, there’s always her next book. She’s more prolific than Miranda July in terms of publishing books.

Long Island Compromise, Taffy Brodesser-Akner

From the blurb: “Long Island Compromise spans the entirety of one family’s history, winding through decades and generations, all the way to the outrageous present, and confronting the mainstays of American Jewish life: tradition, the pursuit of success, the terror of history, fear of the future, old wives’ tales, evil eyes, ambition, achievement, boredom, dybbuks, inheritance, pyramid schemes, right-wing capitalists, beta-blockers, psychics, and the mostly unspoken love and shared experience that unite a family forever.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: There’s a certain history for an author making a splash with critics but not registering with major prizes, then winning a Pulitzer for a subsequent work. Brodesser-Akner is definitely in this camp thanks to her debut, Fleishman Is In Trouble, which has only grown in renown since it was first published (thanks, in part, to a critically loved TV adaptation). There’s also a bit of history with the Pulitzer Board recognizing books that celebrate Jewish-American life (most recently with the surprise winner The Netanyahus). And critics do seem to love Taffy Brodesser-Akner and Long Island Compromise.

Cons: That blurb is a quirky mouthful, and so is the book (which I happily DNF’ed). But it’s possible that I’m allowing my animus to prevent me from taking it too seriously.

Colored Television, Danzy Senna

From the blurb: “A brilliant take on love and ambition, failure and reinvention, and the racial-identity-industrial complex from the bestselling author of Caucasia … Funny, piercing, and page turning, Colored Television is Senna’s most on-the-pulse, ambitious, and rewarding novel yet.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence longlist
• Starred review from Kirkus
• A Washington Post Best Book of 2024
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Pen/Faulkner Award for Fiction finalist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: Senna has a unique connection to another Pulitzer contender this year: James, which was written by her husband, Percival Everett. It’s an apt comparison because like Everett, Senna has been building a reputation for skewering takes on race and America. She feels poised for a big breakthrough.

Cons: There’s no denying that James feels like the more likely contender. To me, this feels like the breakthrough book that helps Senna get more recognition for whatever she releases next.

This Strange Eventful History, Claire Messud 

From the blurb: “Inspired in part by long-ago stories from her own family’s history, Claire Messud animates her characters’ rich interior lives amid the social and political upheaval of the recent past. As profoundly intimate as it is expansive, This Strange Eventful History is “a tour de force…one of those rare novels that a reader doesn’t merely read but lives through with the characters” (Yiyun Li).”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• Publishers Weekly‘s Best Fiction of 2024
• A Washington Post Best Book of 2024
• Booker Prize longlist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: Aside from the pedigree, Messud has been plugging away since her breakthrough novel, The Emperor’s Children was released nearly twenty years ago, and This Strange Eventful History feels like the book that could get her back in the conversation. Plus, this book has a lot of high-profile author blurbs (including a finalist for last year’s prize, Yiyun Li, who was quoted in the blurb, and Joshua Cohen, who won for The Netanyahus). She could be in if any of that effusive praise comes from someone on the jury.

Cons: The reactions from people who read the Booker longlist were decidedly mixed to negative. And for what it’s worth, The Emperor’s Children is one of the first books I ever wanted to throw across the room (in the days before I started actually doing it). If someone like me or those Booker readers gets on the jury (or Board), Messud might have a steep hill to climb.

Previous Finalists

Having been a finalist for the Pulitzer before isn’t necessarily an indication that a win is only a matter of time, but it does mean that these authors have been on the radars of past juries. Sometimes, it’s even true that an author who is presented to the Board more than once can get weighted more heavily. That’s how the Pulitzer Board decided on Anne Tyler over Raymond Chandler when Tyler was up for a third time.

The Unicorn Woman, Gayl Jones

From the blurb: “Marking a dramatic new direction for Jones, a riveting tale set in the Post WWII South, narrated by a Black soldier who returns to Jim Crow and searches for a mythical ideal. Jones offers a rich, intriguing exploration of Black (and Indigenous) people in a time and place of frustration, disappointment, and spiritual hope.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Previous Pulitzer finalist (for Palmares in 2022)

Pros: Jones was a surprise finalist for the Pulitzer when she returned to the literary world for the first time in 22 years with Palmares. And while that novel had a muted debut, its Pulitzer connection increased her publicity. Now, she is renowned for being discovered by Pulitzer winner Toni Morrison and is consistently referred to as one of our greatest writers. With Jones in her mid-70s now, there likely won’t be many opportunities left to recognize her.

Cons: Like Palmares, The Unicorn Woman feels like it’s flown under the radar quite a bit. But Palmares still made it to the final three (and I suspect that the jury for that year tried unsuccessfully to stack the deck in her favor). So, take that with a grain of salt. I won’t be surprised if we discover that this became a finalist (or even won). But the odds are enough to make anyone skittish.

The Book of Love, Kelly Link

From the blurb: “The Book of Love showcases Kelly Link at the height of her powers, channeling potent magic and attuned to all varieties of love—from friendship to romance to abiding family ties—with her trademark compassion, wit, and literary derring-do. Readers will find joy (and a little terror) and an affirmation that love goes on, even when we cannot.”

• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• A Publishers Weekly Best Book of 2024
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s Best Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024
• Nebula Award finalist
• Previous Pulitzer finalist (for Get in Trouble: Stories in 2016)

Pros: Kelly Link already defied the odds of genre bias to become a Pulitzer finalist. With all the excitement over her first novel (having previously published story collections), maybe she can do it again?

Cons: It feels like the phrase “Nebula Award finalist” will never be paired with “Pulitzer Prize winner” unless the Pulitzer Board gets a lot more hip quickly.

Potential Surprise Winners

These books can claim the pedigree of strong contenders, but each has something that makes them feel like more of a longshot. If they win, it will feel like an incredible come-from-behind story.

Ghostroots, ‘Pemi Aguda

From the blurb: “Ghostroots map[s] emotional and physical worlds that lay bare the forces of family, myth, tradition, gender, and modernity in Nigerian society. Powered by a deep empathy and glinting with humor, they announce a major new literary talent.”

• ALA Notable Title
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s Best Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Pen/Faulkner Award for Fiction finalist
• National Book Award for Fiction finalist

Pros: The impressive pedigree (and staying power) of Ghostroots make it feel like a real contender…

Cons: … But the Pulitzer Board is historically a bit stuffy. The Board has also shown a bias against short story collections that feels insurmountable. And while they have selected winners that stretch their mandate to reflect American life (a la The Orphan Master’s Son), it would feel doubly unlikely for them to stretch for a book that’s also a story collection.

Fire Exit, Morgan Talty

From the blurb: “From the award-winning author of Night of the Living Rez, comes a masterful and unforgettable story of family, legacy, bloodlines, culture and inheritance, and what, if anything, we owe one another.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence longlist
• ALA Notable Title
• Time Magazine’s Best Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: With two popular books under his belt (including his previous story collection, Night of the Living Rez), somehow, large-scale recognition has eluded Talty. I feel like he should be a shoo-in for a National Book Award longlist, yet somehow, it hasn’t happened (yet). It’s starting to feel like he’s overdue for recognition.

Cons: There’s always the chance that since his career is just getting started, there will be a sense that there’s plenty of time for recognition later. There’s also the unfortunate fact that Tommy Orange seems to be soaking up all the buzz for the chance that a Native author could win this year. Obviously, in a perfect world that wouldn’t be an issue at all. But we don’t live in a perfect world. But I, for one, will always be rooting for Morgan Talty.

The Most, Jessica Anthony

From the blurb: “A riveting, single-sitting read set over the course of eight hours, The Most masterly breaches the shimmering surface of a seemingly idyllic mid-century marriage, immersing us in the unspoken truth beneath.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• National Book Award for Fiction longlist

Pros: Sure, this slim novella doesn’t have the shiniest pedigree, but consider this: last year’s Pulitzer winner, The Night Watch, didn’t have much of a pedigree beyond being longlisted for the National Book Award either. Plus, Anthony has blurbs from highly regarded authors–the type of people who could be asked to join a Pulitzer jury.

Cons: The biggest cons are visibility and buzz–but as I said, that ended up not mattering for last year’s winner.

You Dreamed of Empires, Álvaro Enrigue

From the blurb: “You Dreamed of Empires brings Tenochtitlan to life at its height, and reimagines its destiny. The incomparably original Álvaro Enrigue sets afire the moment of conquest and turns it into a moment of revolution, a restitutive, fantastical counterattack, in a novel so electric and so unique that it feels like a dream.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence longlist
• The New York Times Book Review‘s Best Books of 2024
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: A colonial revenge story winning the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction would be really sweet what with all this [gestures at the world burning down].

Cons: Most profiles of Enrigue, including his Wikipedia page, identify him as a Mexican author. But that same Wikipedia page also says he currently lives in New York City. The Pulitzer made the citizenship requirement more flexible this year, so maybe this won’t be an issue at all, but the fact that the book is also set in Tenochtitlan makes it feel as unlikely as a win for Ghostroots (unless the Pulitzer Board is willing to push the boundaries). It’s also true that despite its pedigree, You Dreamed of Empires feels lacking in buzz.

Headshot, Rita Bullwinkel

From the blurb: “Frenetic, surprising, and strikingly original, Headshot is a portrait of the desire, envy, perfectionism, madness, and sheer physical pleasure that motivate young women to fight—even, and perhaps especially, when no one else is watching.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Booker Prize longlist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: Fans of Headshot will go to the mat (pun intended) for it. The New York Times Book Review podcast was so effusive about Headshot that I was genuinely shocked it didn’t make their top ten books of the year.

Cons: The fact that it didn’t make it on the NYT Book Review‘s top ten despite all that praise may indicate that its fans aren’t actually that willing to go to the mat for it. Plus, this is another book that had a very mixed reception when it made the Booker longlist.

The History of Sound: Stories, Ben Shattuck

From the blurb: “A stunning collection of interconnected stories set in New England, exploring how the past is often misunderstood and how history, family, heartache, and desire can echo over centuries.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence longlist
• ALA Notable Title
• Starred review from Kirkus
• Pen/Faulkner Award for Fiction longlist

Pros: Like Claire Messud, Shattuck has effusive blurbs from well-known authors–many of whom have a Pulitzer connection. He could be in the mix if any of them are on the jury. Plus, it’s a gorgeous story collection that I personally would love to see get more recognition.

Cons: The board keeps showing that bias against short stories. The History of Sound is a collection of linked stories, and the most recent story collections to win a Pulitzer have been linked stories. Maybe that gives History of Sound an edge. But that bias has been remarkably consistent, which makes it feel like this could be a finalist but not a winner. Last year, there were two story collections among the finalists, and the Board chose the only finalist that was a novel.

Rejection, Tony Tulathimutte

From the blurb: “Sharply observant and outrageously funny, Rejection is a provocative plunge into the touchiest problems of modern life. The seven connected stories seamlessly transition between the personal crises of a complex ensemble and the comic tragedies of sex, relationships, identity, and the internet.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• Publishers Weekly‘s Best Fiction of 2024
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• National Book Award for Fiction longlist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: People who love Rejection will ride or die for it. If any of the critics who praise Tulathimutte as the voice of his generation are anywhere near the Pulitzer decision, he will undoubtedly come up.

Cons: While well-liked by many readers, Rejection feels a bit out there for the Pulitzer Board. Many people who picked it up after it made the NBA longlist found themselves repulsed or offended. Plus, it’s a linked story collection. As we just discussed, the Pulitzer doesn’t have a great track record with those.

Previous Winners

It’s exceptionally rare for a writer to win more than one Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. Only four people have done it (Booth Tarkington, William Faulkner, John Updike, and Colson Whitehead). So, there’s a steep uphill climb for these authors to win again. To be honest, I will be dumbstruck if we get a repeat winner in 2025.

Playground, Richard Powers

From the blurb: “Set in the world’s largest ocean, this awe-filled book explores that last wild place we have yet to colonize in a still-unfolding oceanic game, and interweaves beautiful writing, rich characterization, profound themes of technology and the environment, and a deep exploration of our shared humanity in a way only Richard Powers can.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Kirkus Prize finalist
• A Washington Post Best Book of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Booker Prize longlist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: Powers was a critical darling but not a household name when he won for The Overstory. That win leveraged him into the spotlight and he’s been there ever since. If you like to predict the Booker Prize longlist every year, you have to reserve a spot for Powers every time he releases a book. His standing in the literary community does make him feel like someone who could plausibly claim a second Pulitzer someday.

Cons: But maybe not this year? Reaction to Playground has been a bit more mixed than his other recent releases. If any previous winner has a shot this year, it’s probably Powers. I just don’t think it’s likely.

The Mighty Red, Louise Erdrich

From the blurb: “The Mighty Red is a novel of tender humor, disturbance, and hallucinatory mourning. It is about on-the-job pains and immeasurable satisfactions, a turbulent landscape, and eating the native weeds growing in your backyard. It is about ordinary people who dream, grow up, fall in love, struggle, endure tragedy, carry bitter secrets; men and women both complicated and contradictory, flawed and decent, lonely and hopeful.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Kirkus Prize finalist
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• New York Times 100 Notable Books of 2024
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Pen/Faulkner Award for Fiction longlist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: The feedback on this book has been great. Erdrich has earned a reputation as one of our greatest living American authors, and the discourse surrounding this book indicates that it’s a wonderful case for why. She would feel like a real contender if she hadn’t already won for The Night Watchman.

Cons: … But she did. And that was only four years ago. Plus, despite the love for The Mighty Red, it feels like a late release that quickly disappeared from the conversation.

Tell Me Everything, Elizabeth Strout

From the blurb: “With her remarkable insight into the human condition and silences that contain multitudes, Elizabeth Strout returns to the town of Crosby, Maine, and to her beloved cast of characters—Lucy Barton, Olive Kitteridge, Bob Burgess, and more—as they deal with a shocking crime in their midst, fall in love and yet choose to be apart, and grapple with the question, as Lucy Barton puts it, ‘What does anyone’s life mean?'”

• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• Women’s Prize for Fiction longlist

Pros: Like Powers, Strout was relatively unknown when she won for Olive Kitteridge. And like Powers, her reputation has increased over time. The fact that most of her writing has created an interconnected universe of beloved characters only enhances her fan base. Since Tell Me Everything brings them all together for the first time, maybe love for this universe will propel her up the ranks?

Cons: That seems unlikely–especially since for anyone who hasn’t kept up with Strout’s books (like me), it feels like there’s a lot of homework to do before cracking the spine on this book.

Lovable Longshots

Is there a chance that one of these books will win the Pulitzer? Sure. Is it likely? Not really.

There Is a Rio Grande in Heaven, Ruben Reyes, Jr.

From the blurb: “Blazing with heart, humor, and inimitable style, There Is a Rio Grande in Heaven subverts everything we think we know about migration and its consequences, capturing what it means to take up a new life—whether willfully or forced—with piercing and brilliant clarity. A gifted new storyteller and trailblazing stylist, Reyes not only transports to other worlds but alerts us to the heartache and injustice of our own.”

• Carnegie Medal for Excellence longlist
• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• Pen/Faulkner Award for Fiction longlist

Pros: If the Pulitzer jury (and Board) want to make a political statement about immigration, this could be the book to do it. The pedigree makes it feel like a good surprise contender, and it could also be a good option if they want to think of their mandate as an opportunity to help people discover less visible books.

Cons: It’s a story collection. Even if this made it to the Board as a finalist, the short story factor would make for a steep hill to climb.

Anita de Monte Laughs Last, Xochitl Gonzalez

From the blurb: “Moving back and forth through time and told from the perspectives of [two] women, Anita de Monte Laughs Last is a propulsive, witty examination of power, love, and art, daring to ask who gets to be remembered and who is left behind in the rarefied world of the elite.”

• ALA Notable Title
• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024

Pros: Between this and her debut, Olga Dies Dreaming, Gonzalez is developing a reputation for fiery stories about feminism and race. In the current political climate, these messages might seem worth upholding to a jury.

Cons: There’s an intangible sense that Gonzalez hasn’t made the transition from popular author to critically respected author. I just feel the literary elite (like the kind of people who might make up a Pulitzer jury/Board) might not take this seriously enough.

Catalina, Karla Cornejo Villavicencio

From the blurb: “Brash and daring, part campus novel, part hagiography, part pop song, Catalina is unlike any coming-of-age novel you’ve ever read—and Catalina, bright and tragic, circled by a nimbus of chaotic energy, driven by a wild heart, is a character you will never forget.”

• Time Magazine’s 100 Must-Read Books of 2024
• National Book Award for Fiction longlist
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: What I said about The Most applies here, too. Plus, if this year’s jury wants to make a statement about immigration, this would be a solid option to do that. Seeing a novel with such a young perspective in the Pulitzer canon would also feel refreshing. After all, Elif Batuman surprised many by becoming a finalist for The Idiot.

Cons: … But she didn’t win. Will the Pulitzer Board respond to a book that feels like it belongs to a younger generation? Would the jury? And since this is only her first work of fiction, does it feel like there’s plenty of time to see what Villavicencio does next?

Bear, Julia Phillips

From the blurb: “A story about the bonds of sisterhood and the mysteries of the animals that live among us—and within us—Bear is a propulsive, mythical, richly imagined novel from one of the most acclaimed young writers in America.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• Starred review from Publishers Weekly
• Carol Shields Prize for Fiction longlist

Pros: Julia Phillips is developing a reputation that could lead to great recognition.

Cons: The key word there is “developing.”

Ours, Phillip B. Williams

From the blurb: “Set over the course of four decades and steeped in a rich tradition of American literature informed by Black surrealism, mythology, and spirituality, Ours is a stunning exploration of the possibilities and limitations of love and freedom by a writer of capacious vision and talent.”

• Starred review from Kirkus
• The New Yorker‘s Best Books of 2024

Pros: Williams is a poet who released his first novel with Ours. By all accounts, it’s quite a statement and a promise for his career to come.

Cons: This feels like a book that had solid buzz around the time it was published, then disappeared altogether.

My Prediction

As you’ve seen working our way through these possible contenders, there’s a case to be made for each of them. And as we saw last year, there’s a case to be made for books I decided not to include (Night Watch was cut from my longlist of candidates). But I’m going to narrow it down to two books very quickly.

Last year, I felt pretty certain there was a good chance we would end up with a lesser-known book in reaction to how popular the winners were the previous year. We could be falling into a trend where we get a popular winner, a surprise, a popular winner, a surprise, and then on and on. But I don’t think there’s enough ground to believe that. And I’m not sure that any backlash to Night Watch was as significant as the grumbling we heard the previous year, when the predictable winners tied. The jury and Board might look for unrecognized gems, or they might not. I don’t feel confident trying to guess.

All I can say is that I think this is going to come down to two questions. Will frontrunner status hurt James? And is All Fours going to surprise everyone again?

I don’t mean to hate on All Fours, especially since I haven’t read it. I just really don’t want to have to read it, and I don’t want to purchase a copy to display on my Pulitzer winners bookshelf. I already hate that Night Watch is sitting there. In a weird way, even listening to people praise All Fours only reminds me of the very things I found irritating about her story collection that I DNF’ed.

And while it’s hard to say this with authority since I’ve refused to cave to the All Fours buzz unless it wins, but it feels like this would be a very shortsighted decision. When the Pulitzer was first created, the intention was to recognize future classics in real time. Whatever you think about All Fours, I think we can all agree that James is the likelier candidate for classic status. James even made it onto The New York Times‘ list of reader choices for the best books of the 21st century so far–and not long after it was published, too.

My brain tells me All Fours has a real chance at going the distance. But if it does, it would feel like Crash winning Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain. So I’m going to predict with my heart and hope that the Pulitzer jury and Board won’t be put off by how obvious James feels as a contender. Even though I myself had some quibbles with James, I believe it would be the right choice.

With a nervous heart, I’m predicting that Percival Everett can finally add “Pulitzer Prize winner” to the cover of his future books.

Let me know what you think might win the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, what you would like to see win, and all of that good stuff in the comments.